Wagering requirements explained, with worked examples
A bonus is a loan of playing money with conditions attached. The conditions - wagering multiple, game contribution, maximum bet, caps and deadlines - decide whether the bonus is worth anything. The arithmetic is simple once you separate the steps, and it is the same arithmetic our wagering calculator uses.
The three formulas
turnover = wagering multiple × wagering base ÷ game contribution expected loss = turnover × (1 − RTP) naive EV = bonus − expected loss
- Wagering base is either the bonus amount, or the bonus plus the deposit. The terms say which.
- Game contribution is the share of each bet that counts. Slots often count 100%; table games, live casino or low-edge games are often weighted at 10-20% or excluded completely.
- RTP is the long-run return of the game you clear the bonus on. See house edge vs RTP vs volatility.
Example 1: a typical slot bonus
$100 bonus, 35x wagering on the bonus only, a slot with 96% RTP that contributes 100%.
| Wagering base | $100 |
| Turnover required | 35 × $100 ÷ 1.00 = $3,500 |
| Expected loss | $3,500 × 4% = $140 |
| Naive EV of the bonus | $100 − $140 = −$40 |
| Bets at $1 | 3,500 |
On average, clearing this bonus costs more than the bonus is worth. The $100 looks free, but the 3,500 required bets carry a 4% edge each.
Example 2: deposit plus bonus, low contribution
$100 deposit, $100 bonus, 30x on deposit + bonus, and you want to clear it on a 99% RTP game that contributes only 10%.
| Wagering base | $100 + $100 = $200 |
| Nominal requirement | 30 × $200 = $6,000 |
| Turnover actually staked | $6,000 ÷ 0.10 = $60,000 |
| Expected loss | $60,000 × 1% = $600 |
| Naive EV | $100 − $600 = −$500 |
| Bets at $5 | 12,000 |
The high RTP does not help when only a tenth of each bet counts: you have to stake ten times as much, so the small edge is paid ten times over. The same requirement cleared on a 96% slot at 100% contribution would need $6,000 of turnover and cost about $240 - still more than the bonus.
Example 3: when a bonus can be worth taking
$100 bonus, 10x on the bonus only, a 99% RTP game at 100% contribution, max bet $5.
| Turnover | 10 × $100 = $1,000 |
| Expected loss | $1,000 × 1% = $10 |
| Naive EV | $100 − $10 = +$90 |
| Bets at the $5 max | 200 |
Low multiples on high-RTP games with full contribution are where bonuses can carry positive expected value. Such offers are rarer than headline bonus sizes suggest, and they usually come with the restrictions below.
Rules that change the math
Maximum bet
Most bonuses cap the stake per round while the bonus is active (often a small fixed amount). It limits how fast you can clear turnover and how much you can win from a single bet. Breaking it usually lets the casino void the bonus and winnings, sometimes long after the fact, at the withdrawal stage.
Game weighting and exclusions
Contribution tables are where most of the value disappears. High-RTP games are typically weighted low or excluded, and some terms list specific slots that do not count. Playing an excluded game can also void the bonus.
Max cashout caps
Some bonuses limit how much can be withdrawn from bonus play, for example a multiple of the bonus. A cap cuts off the big wins that high-volatility play relies on, which lowers the real EV below the naive figure.
Sticky vs non-sticky
With a non-sticky (sometimes called parachute) bonus, you play your own deposit first; if you win before touching the bonus, you can usually withdraw and forfeit the bonus. With a sticky bonus, the bonus amount itself is removed at withdrawal and only winnings above it can be cashed out. Non-sticky offers are generally more valuable for the player because they give you a free option.
Time limits
Bonuses expire, often within days. A short deadline with a large requirement pushes you into bigger bets or longer sessions than you would otherwise choose. Divide the turnover by the number of bets you realistically place per hour to see if the deadline is achievable.
Why “naive EV” is only a first approximation
The simple formula ignores two real effects:
- Busting truncates losses. You cannot lose more than your balance. If you run out of money halfway through, you stop - and the remaining turnover is never staked. For high-volatility play this makes the real outcome somewhat better than the formula suggests, at the price of a high chance of ending with nothing.
- Caps truncate wins. A max cashout cuts off the top of the distribution, which works in the other direction.
Modelling both properly needs a simulation of the specific bonus. The naive EV is still the right first filter: if it is clearly negative, a bonus is a cost, not a gift.
Checklist before accepting a bonus
- Is the wagering base the bonus or bonus + deposit?
- What is the multiple, and does it apply to free-spin winnings too?
- Which games count, at what percentage, and which are excluded?
- What is the maximum bet while the bonus is active?
- Is there a max cashout? Is the bonus sticky?
- What is the deadline?
- Can you decline the bonus, and can you withdraw your own deposit before wagering is complete?
FAQ
What does "35x wagering" mean?
It means you must place bets totalling 35 times the wagering base before bonus money (and usually winnings from it) can be withdrawn. Whether the base is the bonus alone or the bonus plus your deposit is set in the terms and makes a large difference.
Do losing bets count towards wagering?
Yes. Wagering counts stakes, not profits. A $5 bet counts as $5 of turnover (times the game’s contribution percentage) whether it wins or loses.
Can a bonus have positive expected value?
Sometimes, when the wagering multiple is low and you can play a high-RTP game at full contribution. Using the simple formula, a $100 bonus with 10x wagering on a 99% RTP game at 100% contribution has an expected loss of $10 and an expected value of about +$90. Caps, max-bet rules, excluded games and time limits often remove that edge, so read the full terms.
What happens if I break the max bet rule?
Most terms allow the casino to void the bonus and any winnings made while it was active. This is one of the most common reasons bonus withdrawals are refused, so check the max bet before the first spin and keep stakes below it.
Related guides
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