Welcome bonuses, in money
What each casino's welcome bonus is worth on average on a $100 deposit, and how often you would actually clear it. No affiliate codes.
Calculated from published terms on 27 Oct 2026. Rows with a figure are ordered by the calculated value; the rest alphabetically. Offers change often - check the terms before you deposit.
| Casino | Offer (as published) | Bonus on $100 | Wagering | Expected value | Chance to clear | Terms checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BitStarz | 1st deposit: 100% up to $100 or 1 BTC + 180 free spins (first step of a 4-deposit welcome package) | $100 | 40x bonus = $4,000 | -$32 | 52% | 27 Oct 2026 |
| Thunderpick | 1st deposit casino bonus: 100% up to EUR 2,000 (the betting option is up to EUR 600 at x10) | $100 | 40x deposit + bonus = $8,000 | -$80 | 14% | 27 Oct 2026 |
| BC.Game | No welcome deposit offer found | No deposit-match offer to calculate | 27 Oct 2026 | |||
| Cloudbet | Welcome Package up to $2,500 over 30 days, paid as rakeback plus casino and sports cash drops | Rakeback offer - no bonus balance to clear | 27 Oct 2026 | |||
| Gamdom | Instant rakeback boosted to 15% during your first week | Rakeback offer - no bonus balance to clear | 27 Oct 2026 | |||
| Rollbit | Not verified | Not verified | 27 Oct 2026 | |||
| Roobet | No welcome deposit offer found | No deposit-match offer to calculate | 27 Oct 2026 | |||
| Shuffle | No current first-deposit offer found on the promotions pages; only the general deposit-bonus terms could be read | Not calculated: match percentage, wagering multiple not published | 27 Oct 2026 | |||
| Stake | Not verified | Not verified | 27 Oct 2026 | |||
| TrustDice | Not verified | Not verified | 27 Oct 2026 | |||
Assumptions
- Deposit $100; the bonus is what the published terms give for that deposit (amounts in EUR are taken at face value).
- A slot with 96% RTP and medium volatility (a bet wins 20% of the time, paying 4.8x); flat $1 bets, or the max bet if that is lower.
- Deposit and bonus are one locked balance, played until the wagering is done or the balance runs out. Value = average amount withdrawn minus the deposit.
- 4,000 simulated attempts with a fixed seed (2026), so the figures are reproducible.
- Free spins, rakeback and cashback are not included. Breaking a rule (max bet, excluded games) voids winnings and is not modelled; neither is the time limit.
Change any of these - another game, a bigger deposit, a different bet size - in the bonus value calculator. The maths behind wagering requirements is in wagering requirements explained, and the terms that most often void bonus winnings are in bonus abuse and voided winnings.
A negative value is the normal case, not a warning about a particular casino: it is what the house edge does over a long wagering requirement. If you take a bonus, treat it as extra play time, not as money. See responsible gambling.
Wagering before a withdrawal
Some casinos also ask you to wager your deposit before you can withdraw it, bonus or not. Each casino's rule, limits and fees, with the source: Stake withdrawal rules, Shuffle withdrawal rules, Roobet withdrawal rules, Gamdom withdrawal rules, Cloudbet withdrawal rules, BitStarz withdrawal rules, Thunderpick withdrawal rules.
FAQ
Why is the expected value of most bonuses negative?
Every dollar you wager on a slot costs the house edge on average. A 40x requirement on a $100 bonus means $4,000 of bets; at 96% RTP that costs about $160, more than the $100 bonus. Wagering on deposit plus bonus doubles the turnover again.
Why is the simulated value better than the simple formula?
The simple formula (bonus minus turnover times house edge) assumes you always finish the wagering. In reality many attempts run out of money early, and a balance of zero cannot lose any more, so the average loss is smaller than the formula says.
What does "chance to finish wagering with money left" mean?
The share of simulated attempts that completed the whole wagering requirement before the balance ran out. Those are the attempts that end with something to withdraw; the rest lose the deposit and the bonus.
Why do some casinos have no figure?
We only calculate from terms we actually read. Some casinos block automated and browser reading behind a bot check, some offer rakeback instead of a deposit match, and some publish general terms without the percentage or wagering multiple of the current offer.