True bonus value calculator
The headline says 100% up to $1,000. Here is what it is worth on average, and how often you would actually clear it.
The same calculation for every casino we profile, on a $100 deposit: welcome bonuses in money.
The model
bonus = min(deposit x match %, max bonus) wagering = bonus x multiple (or (deposit + bonus) x multiple) stakes = wagering / contribution expected loss = stakes x (1 - RTP) simple value = bonus - expected loss (- bonus if sticky)
The simulation then plays it out: deposit and bonus start as one balance, every bet wins RTP / p times the stake with probability p (the volatility preset) or loses it, until the wagering is done or the balance is gone. A finished attempt withdraws its balance (minus the bonus if sticky, capped by the max cashout). The expected value is the average withdrawal minus the deposit.
Assumptions and what this ignores
- One locked balance. Most terms lock the deposit together with the bonus until wagering is done, so the model does too. If your casino lets you withdraw the deposit first, the real value is a little better.
- Two-outcome bets. Real slots mix many small and a few huge wins; the presets give a rough range, the same as the bankroll simulator.
- Rules are kept. Breaking the max bet or playing excluded games usually voids winnings; the model assumes you do neither.
- Time limit is not simulated. The tool shows how many bets per day it takes; failing the deadline forfeits the bonus.
- Free spins, rakeback and cashback are not included.
- Seeded. A fixed seed (mulberry32) makes every result reproducible; nothing leaves your browser.
Just the turnover and the simple formula: wagering calculator. Worked examples: wagering requirements explained.
FAQ
What is the true value of a casino bonus?
The average amount you can withdraw after taking the bonus and finishing (or failing) the wagering, minus your deposit. It is usually negative, because the house edge applies to every dollar of the wagering requirement.
Does a bigger bet size change the value?
Not the average loss per dollar wagered, but it changes the risk: bigger bets make it more likely that the balance runs out before the wagering is done. Max-bet rules in the terms cap how big you can go.
Why does volatility matter?
With high volatility most attempts bust early and a few end with a big balance; with low volatility most attempts finish close to the average. The average value is similar, the chance of clearing the bonus is not.